Yes, we all know that the Minnesota Twins are going through a difficult stretch.  They were perched atop the Central Division and were 11 games over .500 as recently as June 20.  As they head out of the All-Star break, the Twins sit in third place, now four games over .500 at 46-42, and are 3-1/2 games behind the dreaded White Sox.  To make matters worse, they have to hop over the Tigers to catch the Sox.

The season is 88 games old for the home team, and if you break the year into thirds, it tells a tale:

• Games 1-30:  The team was 19-11, outscoring their opponents by an average score of 5.1-3.7.  The starting pitchers sported a 4.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.  Of the 30 starts, 17 were qualified as Quality Starts (minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 ER allowed).  This rate was a little above the league average.  The relievers had a fine 2.89 ERA and were getting the job done.  The starters were averaging 6.3 IP per outing, which ain’t bad.
• Games 31-60:  The Twins went 16-14 as they got into the meatier part of their schedule (they went 2-6 against the Yankees and Red Sox during this period).  The starting staff was still going into the 7th inning on average (6.2 IP/GS), and their ERA was a respectable 4.12 with a 1.29 WHIP.  The relief staff had another fine ERA of 2.97.  The boys were not scoring as many runs (4.5 per game), but they were still outscoring the opposition (3.9 per game).
• Game 61-88:  The Twins were 11-17 during this stretch.  The most disturbing part of it was their interleague record.  They went 6-9 against the NL, a poor showing for a team that has feasted on Senior Circuit opponents (to the tune of a 53-19 record from 2006-09.  Maybe the NL-ers didn’t find Target Field as spooky as the Metrodome).  The low point came during a three-game sweep in Milwaukee (Hmm . . . on second thought, that first-half-finish of a 2-6 road trip at Toronto and Detroit was pretty bad.  And it’s still fresh).  The starters averaged 5.9 innings per game.  It doesn’t sound like it’s much worse than 6.2, but that’s the type of thing that will kill a bullpen over time.  The starters, as you would have thought, were ineffective, posting a 5.79 ERA (but still with a 1.29 WHIP . . . more HRs allowed).  The relievers still delivered a 3.08 ERA, so this isn’t the problem area – yet!  The Twins were outscored by their opponents by an average of 4.3 to 4.9.   Don’t blame Carl Pavano for any of this.  In six starts, he was 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA and .98 WHIP.  The Twins were 5-1 in his games.  You really don’t want to know what the rest of them did in the last 28 games.

So they’re allowing more runs and scoring fewer than when they were winning games.  Brilliant analysis.  You’re welcome.

What now?

I have a few suggestions that I think might help.  They make sense (at least to me, anyway).

Diminish the Heinous

In order to make my case, I need to introduce you to a statistic that I created a few years ago to help prepare for my Fantasy Baseball draft -The Heinous Start (It is quite the handy tool, especially in head-to-head leagues). The Heinous Start (HS) is defined as follows:

When a starting pitcher surrenders a minimum of one earned run for each completed inning pitched (min. 3 runs).

Think of it as the anti-quality start.  You have seen the pitcher who comes in and gets lit up for 7 runs or so in his 4 innings of work.  Or the guy that can’t seem to get through an inning without pitching from the stretch and ends up surrendering 6 runs in his 6 inning effort.  Or the starter that leaves after three innings because he allowed three runs and a boatload of baserunners, sending his pitch count through the roof.  These are all Heinous efforts and qualify as such (some are more egregious than others, of course).

Here is some perspective:  MLB pitchers have started 2,646 games this season.  1,413 of them have been Quality Starts, or 53%  (this is up from the average in the past three years of about 50%, but we’ll address the Year of the Pitcher in another post).  There have been 496 Heinous Starts, or 19% of games started.  So if more than half of your games started are Quality, and you blow up every 5 games or so, you are right at the MLB average, and you will keep your job.  Three starters with 10 starts or more have not “thrown up” an HS:  Florida’s Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson of the Braves, and Jeff Niemann of the Rays.  They all have 18 starts and none are HS (the three starters are averaging 15 QS).   That Niemann hasn’t been lit up at all while pitching in the AL East is truly remarkable.

If 30-40% of your starts are turning out heinous, your team is probably finding a way to either A) Figure out if they should send you to the minors, or B) Find a way to get you on the disabled list (Doctor, my pitching hurts!).  Three pitchers are leading MLB with seven HS:  Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir of the Angels . . . and Nick Blackburn.

Here is how the five guys in the Twins’ rotation stack up:

Pitcher – QS (%/GS), HS (%/GS)

• Pavano – 13 (72%), 3 (16%)
• Liriano - 12 (70%), 3 (17%)
• Baker – 8 (44%), 5 (23%)
• Slowey – 5 (29%), 3 (18%)
• Blackburn – 7 (41%), 7 (41%)

As you can see, once you get past Pavano and Liriano, the picture is rather bleak.   But you’re not going to solve three pitching problems at once.  You start one at at time.   And Nick Blackburn cannot be in that rotation right now.  This picture has to be why the Twins were trying to land Cliff Lee (and hooray to GM Bill Smith for trying!), and hopefully they are still working the lines to get a good starter.   Blackburn is striking out three hitters every nine innings, leaving way too much to chance.  Meanwhile, I cast my vote for Brian Duensing as the in-house replacement for Blackburn.

Paging Mr. Slama . . . Paging Mr. Slama . . . Mr. Slama, please report to the bullpen immediately!

Jon Rauch has done a fine job in stepping in for the injured Joe Nathan.  It’s almost like they haven’t missed a beat.  The bullpen as a whole is doing a great job, leading the league in ERA.  I foresee a few problems:

First, Rauch’s history on converting saves is not encouraging.  He is 20 for 24 this season (his 4 blown saves are tied for the AL lead).  In his other year of closing (2008 with Washington and Arizona), he was 18 for 24.  His strikeout per inning rate of .74 is 31st in MLB among pitchers with five or more saves in 2010.

Secondly, the way the back end of the Twins’ rotation has been performing indicates more innings for the bullpen.  They need a fresh arm.

Anthony Slama was chosen in the 36th round of the Amateur Draft in 2006.  In his four years in the Twins’ system, he has compiled impressive numbers:  233 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and an impressive K/IP rate of 1.42.  The 6’3″, 205 lb. righthander has been even more impressive this season at Triple A Rochester:  49.3 IP, 1.29 ERA, .97 WHIP, and a K/IP of 1.22.

Why not bring him up?  He has 84 career minor league saves, including 16 thus far this season.  Work him into the set up role and if Rauch stumbles, the Twins have a man in line that can miss some bats.

Start Using the Signs, Gardy!

As you are no doubt aware, the Twins have hit into a lot of double plays – 102 to be exact.  On average, an MLB team has hit into a DP once every 43.5 at-bats this season.  The Twins have hit into one every 29.3 at-bats.  No other team is anywhere close to them in this dubious category.  Joe Mauer is leading the way with 15 of them, or one every 19.3 ABs.  Isn’t this the time where you start putting on some plays to avoid the double play?  The hit-and-run?  The run-and-hit?  The 23-Skidoo (whatever that might be)?  Let’s make something happen.  Joe Mauer hits right behind two of the better baserunners in the lineup.  Why aren’t they moving more often?

Another thing while we’re on the offense . . .

Delmon Young is leading the team in RBIs with 58, with 35 of them coming from his prominent spot of seventh in the batting order.  He is hitting .328 at Target Field (2nd on the team).  He is hitting .390 with a .978 OPS with runners in scoring position1 (which leads the league). Gardy, could you please have the awkward conversation with Michael Cuddyer and let him know that he will be hitting 6th or 7th for a while?  Shouldn’t your second most productive player be in a position to drive in your two most prominent players?  He should hit behind Mauer and Morneau in the fifth spot, at least until he cools off.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

***

Well, bring on the White Sox!  25-5 in the last 30?  Really?  They’re not that good (are they?)!

You can follow me on Twitter @dfinley05, or email me at dfinley05@yahoo.com.