
It was a great ride on the way to winning the American League Central Division Crown, but October is a big-boys club, and the Twins in comparison to the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox, are barely out of puberty.
There were games they could have won, and should have won, but that’s how it goes in the postseason when you make all the big mistakes you hadn’t the entire season and the team that’s taking advantage of them is the Yankees.
Needless to say I’m cheering for Torii Hunter and the Angels tonight and going forward this postseason, but its time to take a look at the future of the Twins and their move into Target Field to open up 2010:
5 Questions Heading Into Target Field:
1. Can the Twins sign Joe Mauer to an extension? and for how much?
Its not a question of if to me, its a question of when. But you can not ignore the fact the Joe Mauer has this team by the balls if he wants to go down that road. The Front Office doesn’t even want to think about a Twins team without hometown hero Mauer as its catcher, but he’s due to become the highest paid catcher ever (by a significant margin), if not the highest paid baseball player ever.
If Mauer does leave, and heads easterly instead of westerly, I will swear him off completely and go out of my way to make known my disgust with him, but I can’t see that happening. Justin Morneau has told Mauer that if he leaves he would never talk to him again. The entire male baseball fan demographic in the state of Minnesota has a man-crush on him, and every 13 to 40 year old female baseball fan has a real crush. Its not hard to see that he isn’t going anywhere in my opinion.
The problem is, will signing the uber-star “Baby Jesus” to the monster contract he deserves hinder the Twins from becoming a perennial contender in the years ahead? They say they will be willing to spend more money on the team’s payroll as they move into the revenue boosting Target Field, but I have to believe Mauer’s contract alone will reach the Pohlad’s penny-pinching plateau of increase, and that’s not even including the pay increases in the future for player’s like Jason Kubel, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Delmon Young, etc… This is a young team with a lot of guys who will become eligible for arbitration and new contracts in the near future which will also increase the payroll. Point being, despite the move to the new stadium, there’s still not much wiggle room to improve the team from outside sources, which the Twins are in dire need of doing to contend beyond the first round of the playoffs in the future.
2. Who’s going to be in the starting rotation next year?
To me, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are the only slam dunks. Kevin Slowey is probably another lock, but injuries slowed his development and maturation this season, so he still has questions.
I don’t know what to say about Francisco Liriano. After coming back at the end of the 2008 season so strong, 2009 again looked bright for “The Franchise”, but he couldn’t get out of his own head as the year went on.
Carl Pavano definitely earned the opportunity to be offered a contract extension by the Twins in his brief stint this year, but the Twins need a legitimate “Ace” to round out their rotation in addition to keeping Pavano. He and Blackburn showed flashes of dominance at times, but aren’t true every start stoppers, which is essential to a World Series contending team.
Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, et. al., all have questions as well, and won’t be handed anything in Spring Training 2010.
3. What to do with the bullpen?
Blow it up.
A lot of people are calling for the trade of closer Joe Nathan, saying he is now ‘overpaid’, but I couldn’t disagree with them more even though there are concerns. How soon we forget that when he signed his last contract the deal was praised as being both team friendly and in their best interest. To me, the issue with Nathan is not his contract or his pitching ability, but the change in approach he has taken over the last 2 seasons. When he first came over from the San Francisco Giants, he was a Power closer that blew away hitters save opportunity after save opportunity with a 95+ MPH fastball that touched 97-98 far more than 95. Now, he has “grown” to be a pitcher who mixes in a lot of breaking balls, and because of this has seen his fastball velocity dip to a consistent 92-93 instead of 95+. Lose the breaking stuff (which caused him to fall behind 3-0 to A-Rod and give up the infamous game-tying HR in Game 2 of the ALDS) and start blowing smoke again Joe and you’re good.
Trade acquisitions Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay have earned a return chance as situational lefty and righty matchup pitchers, and Matt Guerrier rebounded to be a respectable setup-man, but beyond them, the bullpen in 2010 should look a lot different.
The return of Pat Neshek should also see some improvement to the pen, but players coming off an elbow surgery can not be counted on in their first year back. This is where the Twins Minor League system actually has the potential to help next year.
Two big-time relief prospects ended the year at AAA Rochester, and in my opinion, could have helped the Twins this season (they were both on my Twins 10 Prospects To Watch list at the beginning of the year). Them being Righthander’s Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama.
Delaney struggled a little adjusting to AAA hitters after his promotion, posting a 4.53 ERA in 36 games, but his track record suggests he will adjust and improve his still respectable 1.21 WHIP (his Minor League career WHIP is a fantastic 1.00) in 2010 if he doesn’t accomplish that before the 2010 opener and end up in the Twins pen. He isn’t overpowering, but posesses impeccable control and his 5.4 to 1 – K to BB ratio demonstrates his ability to make hitters miss.
Slama began the year at AA New Britain as the closer and saved 25 games for the Rock Cats before being promoted to Rochester, making 11 appearances. Take away 1 game where he surrendered 5 runs and he posted a 0.64 ERA in 14 IP with 18 K’s while surrendering only 7 hits. Like Delaney, Slama isn’t necessarily overpowering, but has a deceiving delivery and a plus slider that is responsible for his astronomical 13.3 K’s per 9 IP numbers over his minor league career.
4. What will the infield left of First Base look like next year?
The year ended with Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris sharing 3B-men duties with trading deadline acquisition Orlando Cabrera at SS and “ballplayer” Nick Punto at Second.
Cabrera was a big help in pushing the Twins to the postseason, and I think they should try to bring him back for at least one more season, but he is not a long-term answer on a team lacking any long-term answers at SS.
Punto, Harris, and Tolbert combine to make up arguably the most unproductive infield in the history of Major League Baseball (throw in Alexi Casilla and its without a doubt the worst, despite his game 163 winner). Losing Joe Crede to injury inflates this argument obviously, but you can only role with what you’ve got, and that’s what it is.
Which brings up Third Base. There is a prospect sitting at AAA that many fans have called for to get the first shot next year, that being Danny Valencia. But all indications are he isn’t quite ready to make the jump, and he is the one prospect in the system the Twins can’t rush.
A potential solution? Bring Crede back one more year and give him the chance to play on natural grass and its forgiveness to his back compared to the Metrodome’s turf. I haven’t seen any injury updates on him lately, but a similar incentive laden contract that protects the Twins in case of further injury again doesn’t seem too much to ask.
Punto, well, I don’t want to talk about Punto, and if you have to ask why, I might just punch you in the face. So with him and Casilla, 2B is a crapshoot next year again.
5. Too many outfielders, too little playing time?
Not really, this “problem” is easily fixed by leaving Carlos Gomez in AAA to start next year. He has demonstrated he is a top-notch defender as far as running down fly balls in centerfield, but everything else is a mess. Big time arm, zero accuracy. No plate discipline. No power. No ability to move runners over. For all his speed he can’t steal a base to save his life. Short version is he needs more time in the minors to be taught the game of baseball.
That leaves Delmon Young in LF, Denard Span in CF, and Michael Cuddyer in RF with Jason Kubel able to fill in at the corners and DH. That will work just fine for me.
2 Thing’s I’m Sure Of:
1. Target Field is going to rock.
2. Joe Mauer is your 2009 American League MVP.
To Sunnier (literally) days ahead!